Former President Donald Trump on Monday won the Iowa caucuses, solidifying his place as the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination as he attempts a historic political comeback nearly three years after leaving the White House in disgrace.
Trump got 56,240 votes (51%). DeSantis finished a distant second with 23,420 votes (21.2%, ahead of Haley who with 21,085 votes (19.1%). Vivek Ramaswamy, who was in fourth place (7.7%), ended his campaign Monday night and endorsed Trump.
Neither DeSantis nor Haley emerged as a viable candidate. They probably had enough votes to carry on but neither has much of a chance. DeSantis lost in a very red state where he visited every county and spent all his energy and money. Haley’s support seemed to come from independents and not Republicans. This hopefully plays out well in New Hampshire but she has an uphill battle in other red states including her home state.
Only about 100,000 voters attended the caucus which is about 85,000 less than the 2016 caucus but it is unknown how each candidate was affected by the low turnout but likely that it would hav changed the results much. It is amazing to me that a low turnout in a state like Iowa, which many would have trouble picking out on a map, has so much impact on the nomination but it does. Democrats realized this and did not caucus last night.
I think the entrance polls were interesting and a bit scary if you are not a MAGA Republican.
(1628 respondents)
Party Identification: 82 % Republicans , 16% independents, 2% Democrats
Haley got 15% of the Republican vote and 34% of the independents. Trump got 52% and 42% respectively. So, Haley’s support is not from Republicans which kind of makes sense to me and does not bode well for her after NH.
Gender: 56% men, 44% women
There was really no difference in support for any of them between men and women which indicates to me that abortion is not an issue. Would think Haley might get an advantage but no. She got 21% men and 22% women.
Age
41% of the voters were 65 years old or older. This is probably not representative of Iowa unless unless 4 of 10 people in the state are old which I doubt but it surely is true that older folks vote more than younger people and Trump carried them with 58%
Evangelical: Yes 55%, No 45%
Trump dominated got 53% of Evangelicals and 49% of non Evangelicals.. Haley did better with non Evangelicals 27%. I think we knew this. I am actually surprised Trump wasn’t higher seeing that they have seemed to thrown their religious beliefs aside for Trump.
Education:
Trump dominated no college degree with 67% and 37% of college graduates. Again, Haley did best with college grads 28%.
Race. white 98%, black 0%, Latino 1%
Pretty funny that this was included in the survey.
Ideology: Conservative 89%, Moderate 9% liberal 1%
Trump dominated conservative with 55% and Haley dominated moderates with 63% (unfortunately not many moderates for her and us)
Do You Think Trump Legitimately Won in 2020? Yes 29%, No 65%
This is a little scary by itself that 65% of the Republicans in Iowa still believe that Trump won. Trump got 69% of the No and Haley 53% of the Yes.
Is Trump Fit for the Presidency, if convicted of a crime? Yes 65%, No 31%
This one may be even more scary than the previous question. Trump got 72% of the yes and Haley 49% of the No.
Most Important Issue: Economy 38%, Immigration 34%, Foreign Policy 12%, Abortion 11%
Trump dominated Immigration (64%) and Economy (52%). Haley led foreign policy (45%) and DeSantis Abortion (46%)
Which Candidate Quality Mattered The Most?
Trump led in Fights For People Like Me (82%), Shares My Values (43%) and Can Defeat Biden (40%). Haley led in Has The Right Temperament (66%). This says that Iowan Republicans will support Trump though they don’t think he can beat Biden.
Are You Part of The MAGA Movement? Yes 46%, No 50%
MAGAs went 78% for Trump (unsure what the other 22% are thinking) and non-MAGA went 35% for Haley.
My view is Republicans have bought the Big Lie. They are white, conservative and immigration and the economy are their issues. They are supporting Trump because he fights for them even if they think he will not win. DeSantis just seems to be there with around 20%. He didn’t show any area of strong support within any grouping that separated him from Trump just a lot less support. Maybe if they had a book burner question, he would have done well in that group. Haley would have done well in the Republican Party of Reagan, Bush and McCain or if more college educated, moderate independents who believed in elections voted. Unfortunately for her, she’s in this Republican Party.